Financial Data Repository

1. Financial Projections

Generate 5-year P&L, Balance Sheet, or Cash Flow projections with custom assumptions.

You are a financial analyst for Maywood Cycles. Using the attached financial data:

1. Project the [INCOME STATEMENT / BALANCE SHEET / CASH FLOW] for Years 1-5
2. Apply these assumptions:
   - Revenue growth: [X]% annually
   - Gross margin: [X]%
   - Operating cost inflation: [X]%
   - CapEx: £[X] annually

Output as a markdown table with columns: Line Item | Y1 | Y2 | Y3 | Y4 | Y5

Show calculations for derived rows (Gross Margin = Revenue - COGS, etc.)

2. Scenario Analysis

Model base, upside, downside, and stress scenarios with covenant breach detection.

Using the attached Maywood Cycles financial data, build scenario analysis:

SCENARIOS:
1. BASE: Revenue flat, margins stable
2. UPSIDE: Revenue +5% CAGR, margin +100bps
3. DOWNSIDE: Revenue -10%, margin -200bps
4. STRESS: Lose 20% customer revenue (loan default trigger)

FOR EACH SCENARIO:
- Project 5-year P&L summary (Revenue, EBITDA, Net Profit)
- Calculate: Debt Service Coverage, Interest Coverage
- Check: Can seller note payments be met? (£3.4M June Y1, £2.28M June Y2, etc.)
- Flag any covenant breaches (20% customer loss = default)

Output as markdown tables with summary assessment.

3. Monthly Cash Flow Forecast

Build detailed 12-month cash projection with borrowing requirements.

Build a 12-month cash flow forecast for Maywood Cycles Year 1.

INPUTS FROM DATA:
- Operating cash flow: £1.53M annually (spread monthly)
- Seller note: £3.4M due June, £280k due December
- CapEx: £500k (spread Q2-Q3)
- Seasonality: 60% inventory build in Q1 (bike industry)

CONSTRAINTS:
- Barclays facilities: £5.5M combined limit
- Minimum cash buffer: £200k
- Cannot go negative

OUTPUT:
1. Monthly table: Revenue | OpEx | CapEx | Debt Service | Net Cash | Cumulative | Borrowing
2. Peak borrowing month and amount
3. Months where buffer is breached
4. Recommendations

4. Debt Capacity Analysis

Assess leverage, refinancing options, and additional borrowing capacity.

Analyze Maywood Cycles' debt capacity using the attached data.

CURRENT DEBT:
- NatWest mortgage: £5.77M (secured on property)
- Barclays invoice discounting: £5M limit, 4% fee
- Barclays overdraft: £500k limit
- HP obligations: ~£2.25M at 9%
- Seller's note: £10M at 8% (post-acquisition)

UNENCUMBERED ASSETS: £13.3M (Victoria House, land, US JV stake)

CALCULATE:
1. Total Debt / EBITDA (current and pro-forma with seller note)
2. Total Debt / Equity
3. Interest Coverage Ratio
4. Fixed Charge Coverage

ASSESS:
- Additional borrowing capacity
- Refinancing options for seller note
- Asset-based lending potential
- Recommendations for Barclays negotiation

5. Valuation Sensitivity

Calculate enterprise value under different assumptions and multiples.

Value Maywood Cycles using the attached financial data.

METHODS:
1. EV/EBITDA (cycling industry: 6-8x)
2. EV/Revenue
3. DCF (WACC 10-12%, terminal growth 2%)

CONTEXT:
- Acquisition price: £20M
- CY EBITDA: £1.62M
- Implied acquisition multiple: 12.3x

BUILD:
1. Valuation summary table (all methods)
2. Sensitivity matrix: EBITDA growth (0-10%) vs. Multiple (5-10x)
3. What EBITDA is needed to justify £20M at 8x?
4. Assessment: Was this acquisition fairly priced?

6. Working Capital Analysis

Analyze cash conversion cycle and working capital optimization opportunities.

Analyze Maywood Cycles' working capital using the attached data.

CALCULATE (for each year CY-4 to CY):
1. Days Inventory Outstanding (DIO)
2. Days Sales Outstanding (DSO)
3. Days Payable Outstanding (DPO)
4. Cash Conversion Cycle (DIO + DSO - DPO)
5. Working Capital as % of Revenue

ASSESS:
- Trend analysis (improving or deteriorating?)
- Impact if Halfords extends to 150-day terms (currently 70)
- Benchmark vs. manufacturing industry (~60 days CCC)
- Opportunities to release cash from working capital
- Quantify: If CCC reduced by 10 days, how much cash freed?

7. Data Update Template

Use this when adding new financial data to the repository.

You are updating the Maywood Cycles financial repository.

EXISTING DATA: [Attached financial_data.md]

NEW DATA TO ADD:
[Paste new figures here]

INSTRUCTIONS:
1. Identify which tables need updating
2. Validate: Do new figures align with trends? Flag anomalies.
3. Recalculate all affected ratios
4. Update the markdown file
5. Provide change log:
   - What was modified
   - Old value → New value
   - Ratios affected

OUTPUT: Updated markdown tables + change summary